Economy, Tax. Industry. Market. Wow. How do we win some more?

Make no small plans for they have no power to stir the soul – Daniel Burnham

Corporate tax cuts (subtitled fallacies of “paper investments” vs. “real investments)

  • Suppose company 1 gets a tax cut, but it doesn’t know what to do with the money. On top of all the extra cash the company may already have, it doesn’t have good investment projects. It  sends the money to shareholders….Well, what do shareholders do with it?…
  • … They most likely roll the money in to other investments. They find company 2 that does need the money for investment, and sends it to that company…  
  • One company’s “cash” is a short term loan to another company, which the latter uses to make real investments…
  • …“OK, and then what do they do with the money?” Investment in the whole economy has nothing to do with the financial decisions of the individual company. Investment increases if the marginal, after-tax, return to investment increases. It does not operate by “giving companies cash
  • There are second-order effects and frictions. Internally generated cash can be a cheaper source of investment funds than cash obtained by issuing stock or borrowing. In that case, financing decisions do matter
  • Taxation: Our drop in the corporate tax rate to +/- 20% puts pressure on the European countries that do not have the budgetary margins to quickly absorb a sharp decline in corporate taxes. An uncontrolled decrease in SI within the euro area is equivalent to their internal devaluation.
  • EU & US vs. China. Cooperation between EU and United States on defensive (market economy) and offensive (state trading companies and subsidies, overcapacity, etc.)
  • US vs EU. Long lookbacks where there are large trade and sector imbalances. EU countries have few shared competencies and WTO dispute settlement is unlikely to retaliate and escalate conflicts internally.
  • The border adjustment tax U.S centric, favorable only to those exporting countries, for the others is is a tax devaluation,
  • Intervention on the level of the dollar (manipulation against our currency). Big European divergences on monetary policy. Germany does not follow the EU Commission’s recommendations on reduction of their current surplus, and gives us authority to impose anti-dumping duties against German products and end our subsidies for their energy production. Autos repartiating sourcing, assembly backinto the us

The right corporate tax is zero, tax people. Corporations ‘pay’ no taxes. All taxes apparently paid by corporations come from higher prices, lower wages, or lower payments to shareholders.

Repatriation

  • Taxing US companies’ accumulated offshore profits at 10% on a one time basis if they repatriate money. $2.5 trillion in earnings is held overseas via Federal law that allowed them to indefinitely defer paying taxes on profits until they return them to the US.
  • The repatriation of corporate profits is unlikely to make much difference to their investments if not ‘steered’. Apple Ireland could already put money in a bank that lends to a US bank that lends to Apple US, if that money’s best use was in the US. The marginal profitability of investment is all that matters.

One investment use case of Tax Repatriation is infrastructure spending.

  • Companies could use the tax credit on infrastructure equity investment to offset their tax liability on bringing the money back, converting a tax liability into an equity investment
  • Back of my envelope math. Repatriate $1 billion, incurring $100 million of tax, and invest $121 million in the equity of an infrastructure project. 82% tax credit on the $121m fully extinguishes the repatriation tax, they have a $121 million infrastructure equity investment, no tax bill.

Personal tax cuts is not tax reform. The good start

Tax cuts: Its ‘consumer’ mechanism exempts more, more and more, from any obligation to pay Federal taxes. It will have great visibility and amplify the good will to spend. It broadens the tax base, provide greater  transparency and fairness = aka = people’s confidence that ‘your neighbor is also paying taxes. 

p.s. I think it propels wrong way thinking that the basic function of a tax code is to forcefully transfer money to or from. Reform, which will happen after the easy fixes have been exhausted,

Workforce development

  • There has been little generational transfer of hard, complex labor skills. There is scarcity and little slack in that crucial job market. Not an industry that is robot (hardware bot) or AI (software bot) friendly, capital intensive and can’t build in all the needed redundancies.
  • Amazon city ‘like’ projects will roam over several states; largely in the South/MidWest to capture the labor, real estate and adequate ‘starter’ infrastructure.
  • Walmart Some color on #Walmart wage hikes: Nearly 85,000 employees have 20 plus years seniority, and will qualify for full $1,000. Another 200,000 or so will get $750. More than 600,000 will directly benefit from wage increase.

 

 

Payroll, benefits in a peo model (actuaries/utilization) the oligarch convener, gig economy

slack like companies, and gusto like companies and workday like companies

AT&T

AAON

Aflac

Foxconn

The chairman of Taiwanese electronics giant Foxconn said Thursday it may spend more than $10 billion to set up manufacturing in the United States and will announce investment plans by early August for at least three states.

American Airlines:
Bank of America: $1k bonuses for 145,000 U.S. employees

Boeing
Citizens Bank
Comcast:
Express Employment Professionals
Pinnacle Bank

PNC Financial Services Group

Regions Financial Corporation

Sinclair Broadcast Group

Stifel Financial

Summit State Bank

SunTrust
Travelers
US Bancorp
Walmart

a pop-up peo, what we called a special purpose peo